Why Warisan Plus lost – a preliminary analysis

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As Sabah’s leaders work to resolve the elite impasse on who will lead the state and form a coalition government, analyses of the election results have begun.This article lays out a preliminary analysis of voting by the main ethnic groups in Saturday’s election. The findings show that the drop in turnout was significant, especially among traditional Warisan Plus supporters. Ethnic swings, however, were comparatively more modest, but also worked against Warisan Plus.Ethnicity played a role in splitting the vote, particularly tapping into ethnic loyalties at the local level. The pattern of engagement along ethnicity follows a uniquely Sabah pattern, but broader trends of polarisation and disengagement are emerging. Methodological caveatsLet me begin the piece with four methodological notes. First, this analysis is preliminary, as it uses macro results at the seat level as opposed …