There is no Plan B, we need a Plan A Plus

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In December last year we presented our scenario analysis for 2021 in which we predicted a “survival trap” period where consumers, firms and the government ran down their reserves, followed by a “tipping point,” around now where the economy faced a 50 percent chance of a weak recovery or a 30 percent chance of a mild recession.Our recent update based on new economic data and the impact of various lockdowns suggests that a recessionary scenario is more likely at around 35 percent. We have also raised the likelihood of a weak recovery to 55 percent. The strong rebound hoped for by the government is all but gone, with only a five percent chance and we put the same odds on a full-scale slump.Our general scenarios are shared by many independent organisations. On June 8, the SME Association of Malaysia said there had been 100,000 small-business closures and 50,000 more to come. The f…