A real recovery plan for Malaysia

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From Paolo Casadio and Geoffrey WilliamsAs the number of positive Covid-19 cases continues to rise, many people are quite rightly wondering about how the government should respond to a prolonged health and economic crisis which looks increasingly out of control.When trying to forecast and devise policy in an environment that is changing rapidly, we need to look at likely scenarios and evaluate the balance of risks and outcomes in each case in order to come to the right policy. We need to look at such scenarios urgently as the cases, already exceeding 13,000 per day, are likely to rise exponentially in the near future, according to health director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah, as well as experts in forecasting epidemics.We suggest three scenarios. The first is an “inertia scenario,” in which the virus follows an unconstrained transmission path and lockdowns and vaccination st…