Covid-19 exit plan – tipping into a recession

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The SME Association of Malaysia has estimated that there have been 100,000 small-business closures last year and 50,000 more to come even before the announcement of the recovery plan.By Paolo Casadio and Geoffrey WilliamsThe prime minister’s announcement of Malaysia’s Covid-19 exit strategy is at least the first time the government has given us a clear plan since the beginning of the pandemic as opposed to a “wait and see” approach.Nonetheless, it will send a chilling effect through everyone to see how long the plan will take to come to fruition and how much it will cost to see it through.Now that we have a clearer view of the government plans we should try to calculate the economic cost. We had previously estimated that the total cost of the various lockdowns including the full lockdown from June 1 to 14 would be around RM107 billion. Based on the new exit strategy we estimat…